Main pick: Shaqueme Rock defeats Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: This is one of the most "uncomfortable" fights for price: the market does not see it as a mismatch and the favorite is not huge. Al-Selwady is the most likely side if he manages to impose rhythm and phases, but Rock has a very playable quota and can win if he keeps the fight where he feels comfortable and avoids conceding easy minutes.
Suggestions: Al-Selwady ML in simple; if you want dog with meaning, Rock ML at high odds is the kind of upset that fits the UFC dynamic.
ML quota cut: Al-Selwady if ≥1.70–1.85; if it falls, the value goes to the dog.