Main pick: Axel Sola defeats Fares Ziam (dog).
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Ziam has more UFC experience, good distance management and the ability to turn close fights into decisions in his favor, but at odds 2.25 I prefer Sola's side. He comes from showing that his game is not limited to striking and has enough pressure, power and grappling to prevent Ziam from calmly managing the three rounds. Sola's loss to Mason Jones showed that he can suffer against sustained pressure and wrestling, but Ziam poses a different problem and tends to compete at a more measured pace. If Sola manages to increase the intensity, close distance and generate the moments of greatest impact, he can appropriate very close rounds. I don't consider him clearly more likely than Ziam, but he is much more competitive than the odds indicate.
Suggestions: Sola ML with moderate-low stake. Alternative: Sola +3.5 points or Sola by decision if the odds are high enough.
ML Odds Cut: I especially like it from 2.15-2.20. Below 1.95 I would stop seeing it as a value dog.