Main pick: Kamaru Usman defeats Dricus Du Plessis (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Du Plessis is the logical favorite for age, natural size at middleweight, pressure, and ability to maintain an uncomfortable pace for five rounds. However, the matchup may favor Usman more than the quota reflects. Dricus' aggressive and somewhat messy tackles can offer reactive takedowns, cinches, and control opportunities to a fighter with Usman's experience. The switch to middleweight also eliminates a very demanding weight cut for a 39-year-old fighter. Usman needs to manage his knees, not stay trading at mid-range and turn the fight into a succession of clinches, takedowns, and close rounds. If the fight is primarily stand-up and high-paced, Du Plessis' youth and volume should prevail.
Suggestions: Usman ML with low stake. The most conservative option is Usman +5.5 points or the fight goes over 3.5 rounds.
ML odds cut: Usman is interesting if it stays between 2.80 and 3.20; below 2.60 it loses a good part of the value.