Main pick: Dan Hooker defeats Salahdine Parnasse (dog).
Confidence: 2/5.
Explanation: Parnasse is the most likely winner and comes in as one of the best European signings UFC has made in recent years, but a 5.00 odds for Hooker opens up a very different value bet than trying to simply decide who is better. Parnasse is younger, faster, very complete and can attack Hooker in both striking and grappling. However, he debuts directly in a five-round UFC main event against an opponent who has been facing the lightweight elite for years. Hooker needs to survive Parnasse's initial speed, make the fight physically uncomfortable, punish with knees and long punches and take the Frenchman into attrition terrain that he has not yet had to navigate in UFC. The big risk is Hooker's cumulative deterioration and his recent vulnerability to explosive opponents. I don't think I have about a 50% chance, but I do have more than the 20% implied by the quota.
Suggestions: Hooker ML with very small stake only. Alternative: Hooker by KO/TKO or look for Hooker markets in late rounds. Do not use in conservative accumulators.
ML odds cut: I'm interested in it as a speculative bet since 4.50; below 4.00 the risk would stop compensating me.