Main: Brandon Moreno beats Lone'er Kavanagh.
Trust: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Moreno (32) arrives with real experience in maini and five rounds, in addition to fighting at home. Kavanagh (26) enters as a replacement and the jump at 5R is great, especially in an altitude context. The most likely script is that Moreno manages distance, mixes clinch/I take down when it's convenient and I make it my best to win minutes without giving away trades.
Suggestions: Moreno by Decision; Over 3.5/4.5 if your book offers it.
ML quota cut: Play Moreno ML if ≥1.45; if you are down <1.40, I prefer Decision/Over.