Main: Terrance McKinney defeats Kyle Nelson.
Trust: 3/5.
Explanation: McKinney usually has the most direct route to early domain (explosiveness + grappling/Nelson is the type of rival who punishes if the favorite is empty: if he survives and lengthens, he can change the fight.
Suggestions: McKinney ML. If there is “Not a decision” at a good price, it fits by styles.
ML quota cut: McKinney yes ≥1.45–1.60.