Main pick: Ulanbekov by Decision.
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Physical differential and sustained grappling of Tagir over a technical Horiguchi but in a later stage. At 125 lb and two tough opponents to finish, the script is long.
ML quota cut-off: Ulanbekov ML if ≥1.55; if it falls below 1.45, go to Decision.