Main pick: Jesus Aguilar defeats Su Mudaerji.
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Here I go with the dog because the spot smells like an uncomfortable fight for the favorite: in lines like this, if the underdog has a clear route (control/takedown/dirtying the rhythm) is exactly where a surprise usually falls in a PPV full of favorites. It's not a pick to overbet: it's a value/variance pick.
Suggestions: Aguilar ML in single (small stake). Avoid combined.
ML quota cut-off: Aguilar if ≥2.90–3.10.