Main pick: Steven Asplund defeats Guilherme Pat.
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Asplund has the size, power, and ability to physically impose the clinch, important tools in a heavyweight fight with a lot of variance. Pat can be dangerous when he finds space to throw and retains a real finishing threat, but he will have to manage pressure from an opponent capable of forcing him to defend in the cage. Asplund must use the jab to prepare his entrances instead of accepting open exchanges. From the clinch he can work with short punches, takedowns, and body pressure to reduce Pat's explosiveness. Doubts about the cardio and defense of both prevent him from raising confidence, especially if the fight reaches a messy third round.
Suggestions: Asplund ML with moderate-low stake. Alternative: Fight that doesn't go to decision. I would avoid combining both selections due to their high correlation.
ML Odds Cut-off: Playable from 1.40; below 1.30 offers little room for heavyweight volatility.