Main pick: Sam Patterson defeats Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Confidence: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Patterson has a significant difference in youth, length and grappling threat. Ponzinibbio still retains power, experience and ability to punish an opponent who retreats in a straight line, but his durability and defensive speed are no longer the same as during his prime. Patterson must avoid an open boxing exchange and take advantage of his reach to force the Argentine to overextend. From there he can close the clinch, look for the back or attack the neck during transitions. The risk of the favorite is in his defense when he receives pressure and in the possibility that Ponzinibbio will turn the fight into a physical battle during the first few minutes. The cleaner and more varied the fight, the greater Patterson's advantage.
Suggestions: Patterson ML for combined. Alternative: Patterson by submission. At the current quota, I would not charge too much for the stake due to Ponzinibbio's experience and punch.
ML odds cut-off: The simple one starts to be reasonable from 1.35; below 1.25 it is preferable to look for the winning method.