Pick principal: Movsar Evloev beats Lerone Murphy.
Trust: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Evloev is the “minute winner” profile: high pace, pressure and ability to add rounds with control/downs when needed. Murphy is very solid in long and has good timing, But to beat Evloev normally you have to stop the first round, keep the center and make it Movsar I can't chain phases 5R the most repeatable script is Evloev accumulating minutes, although it is not a safe spot: Murphy is disciplined and can keep it competitive.
Suggestions: Evloev ML. Yes ML is compressed, look at Decision/Over 3.5.
Quota cut ML: Play Evloev Yes ≥1.40–1.50; If it goes down a lot, I prefer Decision/Over.