Main pick: Melissa Croden defeats Darya Zheleznyakova.
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Tight line with slight advantage for Croden. I'm sticking with it for consistency and a clearer route to gain minutes if it keeps the fight orderly. Darya can break it if he picks up the pace and wins the trades.
Suggestions: Croden ML in simple. Avoid combined.
ML Odds Cut-off: Croden if ≥1.65–1.85.