Main pick: Charles Oliveira defeats Max Holloway.
Confidence: 3.5/5.
Explanation: If Holloway keeps the fight long, his volume, defensive discipline and ability to win rounds usually prevails. Oliveira has the most dangerous route: scrambles, back-takes and submissions in transitions; if he turns the fight into chaos early, he can break any reading. At 5R, the most repeatable script is Holloway adding minutes without entering into free exchanges, but in this one we are going to go with Oliveira, the historical king of submissions in UFC also has an excellent Muay Thai and we believe that he can impose himself since Max has been knocked down in his last three fights.
Suggestions: Charles Oliveira ML; Over 3.5/4.5 if you have it at a reasonable price; alternative: Charles Oliveira by Submission if the ML is too short.
ML Odds Cut-off: Holloway playable if ≥1.40–1.50; if it goes down further, I prefer rounds/decision.