Main pick: Luis Felipe Dias defeats Matthieu Duclos (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: It's another very tight fight and the market practically treats it like a pick-em. Duclos will count on the French crowd and has enough tools to win trades, but Dias can offer a more physical fight and mix up the phases better if pure striking doesn't work. In fights with limited samples at the UFC level I prefer not to raise confidence too much. At odds close to 2.00 I see enough balance to lean slightly towards Dias, especially if he manages to turn the exchanges into clinch and attrition work.
Suggestions: ML Days with small stake. Alternative: check.
ML quota cut: It has interest around 1.95-2.00; below 1.85 I don't see enough margin.