Main pick: Alessandro Costa defeats Matt Schnell.
Confidence: 4/5.
Explanation: Costa is the most reliable side if he can impose rhythm and grappling/control phases, especially if he puts pressure and doesn't let Schnell find "timing" in exchanges. Schnell has a craft and can always turn a fight with a scramble or a finish, but the more repeatable script favors the favorite if he fights disciplined.
Suggestions: Coast ML as an anchor. If there is ITD/finish line with decent return, it may be better than very short ML.
ML Quota Cut: Avoid simple if <1.18; better combine or prop.