Main pick: Mateusz Gamrot defeats Quillan Salkilld (dog).
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Salkilld arrives with youth, size, range and a finishing ability that explains his favoritism, but he faces a completely different test against one of the best fighters in the division. Gamrot must avoid a fight that is too clean from long range and turn the fight into a succession of level changes, clinch, scrambles and restarts. Although Salkilld defends the first inning, the Pole is used to stringing together attempts and forcing the opponent to work constantly to regain position. The danger for Gamrot will be in the knees, the straight punches and the Australian's ability to punish him when he enters from too far away. In five rounds, the veteran's experience managing the rhythm and modifying his plan can prove decisive if he manages to progressively wear down the takedown defense.
Suggestions: Gamrot ML with moderate stake. Alternative: Gamrot by decision. The over3.5round also fits with a fight that can have long periods of control and grappling.
ML quota cut-off: It has value from 2.10; below 1.90 it would no longer compensate for Salkilld's physical and offensive advantages.