Main pick: Richie Miranda defeats Manoel Sousa (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Sousa has more power and damage when he reduces space, but his quota requires confidence that he will maintain pressure and energy throughout the fight. Miranda can take advantage of his mobility, bulk, and a better willingness to work for three rounds if he can survive the start. The underdog needs to move laterally, attack while Sousa prepares his punches and avoid being locked against the cage. He can also benefit from forcing the favorite to miss charged attacks and constantly rebuilding the distance. Sousa is still the fighter with the highest finishing ability, but Miranda has a real route through activity, cardio, and a decision where he accumulates more work.
Insider Tip: Miranda ML with small stake. Alternative: Miranda by decision. It can also be searched live if it makes it through the first round without taking too much damage.
ML quota cut-off: It has value from 3.10; below 2.75 it would no longer compensate for Sousa's initial power and pressure.