Main pick: Hecher Sosa defeats Luan Lacerda.
Confidence: 4/5.
Explanation: Sosa arrives with huge backing and a style compatible with winning 3R: pressure, clinch, body-lock and repeated takedowns. Lacerda is very dangerous if he gets scrambles and starts to chain submissions, but if Sosa maintains top control and avoids backing, he takes the fight for minutes.
Suggestions: Sosa ML. If there is a decision at a good price, it may make sense.
ML quota cut: Sosa if ≥1.35–1.45; if it goes down a lot, prefer Decision.