Main pick: Paddy Pimblett defeats Justin Gaethje.
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Narrative and strong promotional drive; Pimblett has improved his defense and volume in the long run. Even so, high risk for low-kicks and Gaethje's power.
Suggestions: Cover with Gaethje KO/TKO or Under 3.5 if you expect war; if you are looking for safety, avoid long combinations with this fight.
ML odds cut-off: Pimblett ML if ≥2.10; if he is a short favorite (<1.80), prefer Over 1.5 or "does not reach a decision" on price.