Pick principal: Alexandre Pantoja beats Joshua Van (dog).
Trust: 3/5.
Explanation: The first fight ended too soon because of the injury of Pantoja to draw real conclusions from the matchup. Van arrives as champion, is younger, has a boxing of a lot volume and has shown that it can maintain a very high pace, but Pantoja continues to have especially uncomfortable tools for him. He can press, close distance, convert exchanges into clinch and attack your back on any scramble. Five rounds away his experience in championship fights also weighs. The risk is that Pantoja cannot impose grappling for long enough and I end up forced to chase a faster and more active rival. I see a fight much closer to the 50/50 that a clear favoritism of Van and I slightly prefer the ability to Pantoja for mixing phases.
Suggestions: Pantoja ML with stake moderate-low. Alternative: Pantoja by decision or submission.
Quota cut ML: He's got interest since 2.00; below 1.85 I would stop seeing it as an especially attractive dog.