Main pick: Joel Álvarez defeats Yaroslav Amosov (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: The value is on the side of the dog with threat of finishing: Alvarez can turn the fight into scrambles with a back/neck and hunt submission when Amosov is exposed in transitions. Amosov is the "stable" side if he imposes positional control and does not give away back, but in a grappling crossover, the finisher at high odds is playable.
Suggestions: Alvarez ML (low stake). Alternative: Alvarez for Sub if the market pays well.
ML Odds Cut-Off: Alvarez dog playable if ≥2.30–2.60.