Main pick: Navajo Stirling defeats Jan Blachowicz.
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Stirling has youth, speed and a greater ability to sustain volume for three rounds in his favor. He can attack with straight punches, body kicks and low kicks without staying too long in the Pole's response zone. Blachowicz continues to be dangerous due to power, experience and resources in the clinch, and can punish any overconfidence of the New Zealander with counterpunches or opportunistic takedowns. The huge difference in experience against elite opponents prevents Stirling from being treated as a solid favorite at his quota. His route is to keep the fight long, make Jan miss and add activity without exposing himself to static exchanges. If Blachowicz manages to close the distance and turn the fight into a physical battle, the difference between the two is considerably reduced.
Suggestions: Stirling ML in combined only. Alternative: Stirling by decision. Blachowicz with a round handicap may be more attractive than paying full price for the favourite.
ML odds cut-off: Below 1.40 does not deserve a single bet; it would be more reasonable from 1.50.