Main pick: Sedriques Dumas defeats Jackson McVey (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: At dog rate, Dumas is playable by variance: if he turns this into a messy exchange and lands damage early, he can break the favorite's plan. McVey is the more stable side if he fights orderly, scores with clean punches and avoids chaos.
Suggestions: Dumas ML (low stake). Alternative: Dumas ITD if there is a good return.
ML quota cut-off: Dumas only if ≥2.40–2.70.