Main pick: Israel Adesanya defeats Joe Pyfer.
Confidence: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Classic "elite long-distance tech" vs. "short-route puncher" matchup. If Adesanya rules the center, works with jab/feints, and forces Pyfer to reset, he wins rounds by volume and control. Pyfer's route is clear: cut cage, tap hard at starts, or force clinch/early takedown to break rhythm.
Suggestions: Adesanya ML; if the ML gets tight, Decision/Over 3.5 as an alternative. If you go with Pyfer, better KO/TKO than ML.
ML Odds Cut-Off: Adesanya playable if ≥1.60–1.75; if it goes too low, I prefer Decision.