Main pick: Mateusz Rebecki defeats Grant Dawson (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Dawson is favored by repeatable plan (pressure and takedowns), but Rebecki as a dog has a very real way if he wins the first physical exchanges, punishes tackles and forces Dawson to fight more on his feet. If Rebecki stops the first takedown and puts damage on R1, the script changes quickly.
Suggestions: Rebecki ML (low stake). Alternative: Rebecki by KO/TKO if the odds are good.
ML Odds Cut-Off: Rebecki playable if ≥2.20–2.50.