Pick principal: Regina Tarin beats Ernesta Kareckaite (dog).
Trust: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Tarin (21) arrives undefeated, enters with little notice and fights at home: combination that sometimes generates scenes of surprise, especially in 3R and judges. Kareckaite (27) has more travel in these types of scenarios, but this spot fits with the typical dynamics of UFC: poster heavily loaded to favorites → usually drop at least one upset “realistic.” The fee pays the risk.
Suggestions: ML in simple (stake Avoid putting it in combination.
Quota cut ML: Play Tarin Yes ≥2.20 (ideal ≥2.30). If you go down from 2.05, Loses Attractiveness.