Main pick: Dustin Jacoby defeats Muhammad Said.
Confidence: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Jacoby approaches the fight with a considerable difference in experience against UFC opposition and remains one of the most technical kickboxers in the division. His jab, straight punches and low kicks should punish the innings of a Said who debuts in the company with an undefeated record, but has not yet faced a striker of this level for three rounds. The newcomer can be dangerous due to power, youth and ability to accelerate in combinations, especially if he manages to push Jacoby back. However, the American should manage the distance better, vary the attacks on the body and legs and force Said to throw from uncomfortable positions. The main risk is in Jacoby's age and his tendency to contest close decisions when he reduces the volume too much.
Suggestions: Jacoby ML. Alternative: Jacoby by decision or late KO/TKO. It would avoid a high exposure against an undefeated opponent about whom information is still lacking at the highest level.
ML Odds Cut: Playable from 1.50; below 1.40 loses appeal due to Said's power and youth.