Main pick: Cristian Quiñonez beats Kris Moutinho.
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Quinonez (29) arrives with home advantage and better market/community support. Moutinho (33) usually brings toughness, but his recent competitive ceiling is lower. It is not a spot to overbet because at 135 there is always variance, but the right side is Quinonez.
Suggestions: ML; if there is ITD at a good odds, it may have more value than short ML.
ML quota cut-off: If the ML is too low, better prop or pass.