Main pick: Chris Padilla defeats Nasrat Haqparast (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: It's practically a pick em and one of the most complicated fights to assess. Haqparast has much more experience in UFC, good boxing and enough defense to force Padilla to earn every exchange. Padilla, however, is going through a very good competitive moment and offers a somewhat more varied game, being able to introduce clinch and grappling if the handfight starts to favor Nasrat. To win he needs to avoid staying in front by exchanging linear boxing for fifteen minutes and make Haqparast have to solve different situations. I don't see a wide advantage for anyone, but at the price of a minimum underdog I lean slightly towards Padilla.
Suggestions: Padilla ML with small stake or directly pass. I would not use it in combines.
ML Odds Cut: You have interest around 2.00-2.05; below 1.90 you would prefer not to bet.