Pick principal: Charles Johnson beats Eduardo Chapolin.
Trust: 3/5.
Explanation: Chapolin comes in a very good dynamic and has enough power to be dangerous, but accepts the fight with just a few days of preparation before a rival with a complete camp and much more experience in UFC. Johnson has shared cage with clearly superior opposition and knows how to compete in closed fights, although its tendency to grant minutes and depend on late volume makes it not a particularly comfortable favorite. Chapolin has finished rivals at regional level, but when the demand in the Contender increased it was necessary to reach the cards. Johnson should take advantage of mobility, cardio and experience to lengthen the fight and force the Brazilian to maintain a pace for which he has not had specific preparation. I see real options for Chapolin at the beginning, but as the minutes progress the balance should be inclined towards Johnson.
Suggestions: Johnson ML with stake Alternative: Johnson by decision.
Quota cut ML: I'm interested in it from about 1.75-1.80; below 1.65 The fight is too competitive.