Main pick: Manoel Sousa defeats Bolaji Oki.
Confidence: 4/5.
Explanation: Sousa arrives with a strong consensus and a more stable profile for 3R: pressing, gaining minutes and not depending on a single punch. Oki has the dog route (big moment or long-range fight), but the serious side is Sousa for consistency.
Suggestions: Sousa ML. If the ML is short, look at Decision.
ML Quota Cut: Sousa if ≥1.35–1.45.