Main pick: Paddy Pimblett defeats Benoit Saint-Denis (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Saint-Denis is the more physical and aggressive side, but he also tends to accept high-tempo wars where he is exposed. Paddy has more value as a dog if he can survive the first push, mix clinch/grappling, and turn the fight into transitions instead of a frontal exchange. BSD can dominate if they impose pressure and punishment from the start, but if the fight becomes long and messy, Paddy has more options than a superficial reading indicates.
Suggestions: Paddy ML with low stake. Alternative: Paddy by Sub if the odds accompany.
ML odds cut-off: Paddy playable if ≥2.05–2.25; if it drops below 1.95, it loses value.