Pick principal: Belal Muhammad beats Gabriel Bonfim.
Trust: 3.5/5.
Explanation: A 5 Rounds the script gains weight: Belal usually live from “win minutes” with constant pressure, clinch long, chain-downs and enough control to add up rounds without assuming too much variance. Bonfim has real danger if he succeeds in turning it into a fight scrambles and hook neck/back, but to collect you need very concrete sequences and that Belal accept risky transitions in a combat 25 minutes, tactical discipline, rhythm and wear management tend to lean on the side of Muhammad If you don't rush to finish.
Suggestions: Belal ML as a serious leg: Belal by decision if the quota accompanies.
Quota cut ML: Belal whether ≥1.65–1.85; If you go down a lot, look at Decision.