Main pick: Almabayev by Decision (playable dog: Perez ML at price).
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Asu scores with scrambles/control without exposing himself; Perez has faster hands and good TDD, hence if his odds skyrocket there is value. No price, the structural side is Asu by points.
ML quota cut: Almabayev ML if ≥1.65; Perez ML only if ≥2.60.