Pick principal: Dione Barbosa beats Anna Melisano.
Trust: 4/5.
Explanation: Barbosa accepts combat with a rival other than the one initially planned, but maintains a clear advantage in experience UFC, grappling and ability to impose control. Melisano enters a complicated situation in front of an opponent who can change the level and punish any positional error. The favorite should avoid an unnecessarily open fight from striking and use clinch, top control. The price is very short, although the matchup offers a fairly direct route.
Suggestions: Barbosa ML as anchor. Barbosa by submission or termination may offer a higher risk-return ratio.
Quota cut ML: Avoid simple under 1.18; better combine or search for a method market.