Main pick: Alex Perez defeats Sumudaerji (dog).
Confidence: 2.5/5.
Explanation: The first matchup forces us to recognize that Sumudaerji deserves to be the favorite: before the No Contest he was connecting a lot more, he even knocked Perez down with punches and his huge reach advantage was conditioning the fight. Even so, a quota close to 3.00 seems too wide for a former title candidate who has a very clear tool to completely change the second match. Perez needs to give up chasing the Chinese in a long striking match and use pressure, clinch and wrestling long before. Sumudaerji has good takedown defense, but if Perez manages to string together attempts and force him to get up repeatedly, the range difference loses much of its importance. It's a value pick, not because he believes Perez is clearly the most likely winner.
Suggestions: Perez ML with small stake. Alternative: Perez by decision or submission. Do not use in conservative combinations.
ML quota cut: I've liked it since 2.70; around 2.40 it would lose a good part of its appeal.