Main pick: Alessandro Costa defeats Cody Durden.
Confidence: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Durden is tough and can make an awkward fight with wrestling and pressure, but Costa is usually more dangerous in transitions and finer at punishing mistakes. If Costa defends the first takedowns and doesn't concede long control, he should have more options to do damage and create real threats. Durden needs volume of control to equalize.
Suggestions: Costa ML. Alternative: Costa per Sub/ITD if the market pays well.
ML Odds Cut-off: Coast playable if ≥1.35–1.50.