Main pick: Umar Nurmagomedov beats Song Yadong.
Confidence: 4.5/5.
Explanation: Song is one of the best strikers in the division and has enough power to punish any ill-prepared tackle, but the matchup clearly favors Umar's ability to mix phases. He doesn't need to take down the first time: he can press, take Song into the cage and chain attempts until he transforms a good part of the match into wrestling defense. Song has a respectable takedown defense and will be dangerous as long as he manages to keep the center, but after five rounds it is difficult to trust that he can avoid the clinch and the Russian's control for twenty-five minutes. Umar has also shown that he can maintain a high pace without relying on a finish.
Suggestions: Nurmagomedov ML for combined only. Best alternative: Nurmagomedov by decision or card handicap.
ML odds cut-off: At 1.18 it does not make sense as a single bet; to combine it can be used, but I would preferably look for a decision.