Main: Tai Tuivasa defeats Louie Sutherland.
Trust: 3/5.
Explanation: In HW there is always variance, but the most repeatable script is Tuivasa winning if it turns this into short exchange and does not let it lengthen with alien control. Sutherland needs to survive the hot stages and cool the rhythm.
Suggestions: Tuivasa ML; if any KO/TKO at a good price, it usually has more logic than ML.
ML quota cut: Tuivasa (if ≥1.45–1.60.