Pick principal: Lucas Fernando beats Rafael Tobias.
Trust: 2.5/5.
Explanation: Fernando is a favorite, but it is one of the differences in quota that I least buy from the entire billboard. It arrives with four consecutive victories and seems technically more developed, but it still has to demonstrate that superiority in UFC. Tobias He has only lost twice and one of those losses was against Diyar Nurgozhay, whose later level makes that result not grow old, Tobias is younger and has finishing tools, so we are not facing a rival who Fernando I should simply pass over his recent trajectory. I lean towards Fernando greater consistency and ability to bring the fight to your ground, but I see a combat far more competitive than the price indicates.
Suggestions: Fernando ML only with small exposure or in combination. My main alternative is to pass. Tobias may have value like dog if your quota continues to grow.
Quota cut ML: I wouldn't play Fernando below 1.50; would need around 1.60 to ask me a simple.