Main: Rafael Tobias defeats Diyar Nurgozhay.
Trust: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Favorite with strong consensus: the most likely script is Tobias winning minutes and avoiding a high variance exchange in 205. Nurgozhay has physical/size to scare, but the stable side is Tobias.
Suggestions: Tobias ML; would not force props if there is no price.
ML quota cut: Tobias if ≥1.40–1.50.