Main pick: Miles Johns defeats Jessie Rosas.
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Johns has an advantage in experience, power and the ability to defend himself in physically demanding fights. Rosas can be more active, change levels and force him to work against the cage, but he will have to avoid the tight counterpunches of the favorite when closing the distance. Johns needs to increase his volume compared to some previous performances, because his tendency to wait too long can leave tight rounds even if he lands the hardest punches. His takedown defense and strength in the clinch should allow him to keep much of the fight on his feet. If he combines the jab with body shots and doesn't give up the initiative, he can control the exchanges without exposing himself to an unnecessarily close call.
Suggestions: Johns ML with moderate stake. Alternative: Johns by decision. The over2.5round fits well with the matchup.
ML odds cut-off: It has value from 1.65; below 1.50 its low volume can make the bet too demanding.