Main: Marwan Rahiki defeats Harry Hardwick.
Trust: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Rahiki arrives as a solid favorite and with strong consensus. Hardwick is dangerous rival if he turns this into a rhythm fight, but the most repeatable side looks like Rahiki if he maintains structure and does not enter chaos.
Suggestions: Rahiki ML. To lower variance: Over 1.5 If you have it at a good price.
ML quota cut: Rahiki yes ≥1.35–1.45.