Main pick: Mario Pinto defeats Felipe Franco.
Confidence: 4.5/5.
Explanation: Super favorite. Here the pick is by probability: the short side usually has a big edge and a repeatable script. The real risk is the inherent variance, not the matchup itself.
Tips: Just as an anchor; if there's ITD/KO at decent odds, it's usually better than ML so low.
ML Quota Cut: Avoid simple if <1.15; better prop or combine.