Pick principal: Luke Riley beats Michael Aswell.
Trust: 3/5.
Explanation: Moderate favorite with a fairly clear script: maintain structure, gain minutes and not MMe in high variance exchanges. Aswell as underdog You need a big moment or turn the fight into chaos to break the favorite's plan.
Suggestions: Riley ML in simple or moderate double.
Quota cut ML: Riley Yes ≥1.40–1.55.