Main pick: Levi Rodrigues beats Felipe Franco.
Confidence: 3/5.
Explanation: Rodrigues is the most reliable side because of his physicality, pressure and ability to impose hard exchanges from the start. Franco has options if he gets through the first wave, manages energy better and turns the fight into a longer, more technical fight. At heavyweights, any favoritism should be treated with caution because a single action can alter the outcome. Rodrigues should avoid chasing a desperate finish and use his power to progressively close spaces.
Suggestions: Rodrigues ML in simple. A bet that the fight doesn't come to the decision may be more coherent than using it as an anchor.
ML quota cut: Rodrigues is reasonable from 1.55; below 1.45 does not compensate for the heavyweight's volatility.