Main pick: Derrick Lewis defeats Josh Hokit (dog).
Confidence: 2/5.
Explanation: This is pure "dog with a red button" profile. Lewis doesn't need to gain minutes: he needs 1-2 clear connections and the fight changes. Hokit, as the favorite, is probably so because of more stable youth/pace/plan, but in heavyweights the structural risk is enormous: a miscalculated exchange, a broken clinch or a poorly closed tackle and you eat your hand. It's a value pick by variance, not safety.
Suggestions: Lewis ML (low stake) or, better yet, Lewis by KO/TKO if the price improves the risk.
ML Odds Cut: Lewis only if ≥3.75–4.25; below, I prefer KO/TKO.