Main pick: Myktybek Orolbai defeats Jeremiah Wells.
Confidence: 4.5/5.
Explanation: Orolbai is the strongest pick on the card to me. Wells is still dangerous for the first few minutes with power and explosiveness, but the Kyrgyz is younger, can impose a much more consistent physical pace, and has a very clear route through pressure, chain takedowns, and control. The key is not just getting the first takedown, but forcing Wells to defend repeatedly, get up, and get back to work against the cage. As the fight progresses, that difference in pace should get bigger and bigger. Orolbai also has enough power to take advantage of a Wells who are worried about defending the changes in level. I see both finishing and a wide control win if the veteran survives.
Suggestions: Orolbai ML as a combination piece only. Alternative: Orolbai ITD or by submission.
ML odds cut-off: Below 1.20 it doesn't make sense to play it in single; I would look to combine it or go to the finishing market.