Main pick: Jalin Turner defeats Kauê Fernandes.
Confidence: 3.5/5.
Explanation: I increase my confidence in Turner compared to the initial analysis because the difference in physical and range can condition this matchup a lot. Turner is huge for the division and, if he returns close to the level he showed when he was a regular in the top 15, Fernandes will have to go through a very complicated distance every time he wants to attack. The Brazilian has a particularly dangerous tool in his low kicks and should use them to deteriorate the American's base and mobility, so Turner cannot remain static waiting for the counterattack. But Jalin has straight punches, knees, power and threat of submission to punish precisely those tackles. The withdrawal and subsequent return introduce an uncertainty that prevents him from being considered a maximum confidence pick, but looking exclusively at the matchup I see more arguments than reflected in a quota around 1.60.
Suggestions: Turner ML with moderate staking. Alternative: Turner ITD.
ML quota cut-off: I like it around 1.60; below 1.45 I would start to lose a lot of interest due to the uncertainty associated with his return.