Main pick: Islam Makhachev defeats Ian Machado Garry.
Confidence: 3.5/5.
Explanation: Makhachev is a better fighter globally and still has the most consistent route, but I don't consider him one of the safest picks on the card at the current price. Garry presents a very different problem in terms of size, range and mobility and has already shown that he can compete for five rounds and survive grappling phases against top-level opponents. Islam needs to avoid chasing takedowns from too far away, press progressively until he gets the Irishman into the cage and from there chain clinch, trips and control. Garry has to keep the center, use his straight punches and knees and make each inning pay. If he can fight a good part of the fight in the open field, he can make it much more competitive than the odds suggest. Still, with five rounds to go, I have more confidence in Makhachev's ability to make adjustments and find different paths to victory.
Suggestions: Makhachev ML only for those who want to prioritize probability over value. I like Makhachev more by decision or assault markets. I wouldn't use it as a mandatory basis of a combine.
ML Odds Cut-Off: At the 1.28-1.30 zone I don't see value in your ML. It would take about 1.45 for me to start being interested as an individual bet.